Parent banks are pulling money out of their Ukrainian «daughters.» Why is this happening, and what it threatens to ordinary Ukrainians learned TSN.ua.
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In early June, the Swedish financial group SEB sold its Ukrainian subsidiary of SEB Bank. «Now, SEB Bank is not part of the SEB Group, a trademark of SEB Bank will temporarily be used on the market before the launch of a new brand of financial institutions» — note in the bank.
This is — a significant event for the Ukrainian market. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, on April 1, 2012 by total assets of SEB Bank took 59th place (3.32 billion hryvnia), and the EBRD — 93 (1.382 billion hryvnia) among the 174 banks operating in the country. Experts believe that the departure of the Swedes from the Ukraine — it is only the beginning to the end of the year to transfer assets out of the country may have several foreign financial groups. One of the main reasons — problems in the eurozone.
In October 2011 the U.S. Goldman Sachs issued a forecast that at least 50 out of 91 European banks may fail in the regular stress tests in which the parameters laid down more stringent than similar inspection in July 2011. In this case the aggregate deficit of bank capital may amount to 139 billion euros.
Among the banks, who may need additional capital, among other things, Commerzbank (in Ukraine — the bank «Forum») and UniCredit (owned by UniCredit Bank in Ukraine, a former Ukrsotsbank). In order to stay afloat and get government assistance, financial groups are likely to be rid of its non-core assets. Ukraine — the first market, which can leave the data structure.
This is, in principle, is already happening. «The European Central Bank credits to the banks of the eurozone countries to an unprecedented amount — more than 1 trillion euros, but this did not solve the problem of Europe's leading banks. So today we are faced with the fact that these banks to derive a capital of its Ukrainian branch» — explains the prime Minister Mykola Azarov.
Ukrainian financial market risk makes the coming parliamentary elections, as well as the harsh policies of the National Bank of keeping the hryvnia. "The funds are derived from the Ukraine because of the rising political risks.
In these circumstances, banks can not increase lending, — Alexander Okhrimenko, president of the Ukrainian think tank.
Risk group
The first candidate to withdraw is considered the German Commerzbank. His Ukrainian «daughter,» the bank «Forum», graduated in 2010 with one of the biggest losses in the system (-3.3 billion hryvnia). The bank has significantly reduced its branch network in Ukraine. However, rumors of his resignation go for a long time, but the bank is still working in the same capacity. And at the Commerzbank does not confirm information about the withdrawal from the Ukrainian market.
Similar rumors circulated and the UkrSibbank (a subsidiary of French group BNP Paribas Group), which is among the five largest banks in the country, as well as Erste Bank. However, in these institutions no such information at the official level, not on a member, do not confirm. «We are all stable, operate, develop. There is no talk of selling or closing, I have not heard», — told the officer UkrSibbank.
In his opinion, the reason for these rumors could be a revision of the rating of its parent BNP Paribas agency Moody's. Recall June 22, Moody's downgraded the rating of the organization at two positions, up to A2.
Also, recently in one of his speeches executive director of Raiffeisen Bank International Stepic said that the group will leave one or two markets in Eastern Europe, it is true what is not said. Note, this structure is in Ukraine, the daughter of Raiffeisen Bank Aval.
However, most of all, of the Ukraine are not talking. He said the group is still «sees good growth rates in Russia and partly, perhaps, in the Ukraine.»
However, Mr Lavrenchuk, CEO of Raiffeisen Bank Aval, in one of his last interviews, said that now the demand for Ukrainian banks do not. According to the banker, the Ukrainian market is not attractive, its profitability is very low and, therefore, to draw money from the sale of banks is almost impossible.
Background to talk about leaving the Italian UniCredit Group gave a strategy adopted by the group for its development. In particular, it identified four countries with «high potential for the development group.» Ukraine in this quartet is not included.
Savings — the cashier?
However, experts believe that even if someone from the «foreigners» will dare to leave the Ukrainian market, with investors are being paid accurately. After all, banks with foreign capital are among the safest.
Their parent structures have sufficient resources to solve problems with investors — in particular, they have already done so in the crisis in 2008. In addition, these structures take care of his reputation, and difficulties with disgruntled investors such a big country like Ukraine can greatly undermine them.
However, risks can be greatly enhanced if the foreign financial groups decide to sell their «daughters» in Ukraine. In other words, you invest money in a reliable French or German for example a bank, and six months later it turns out that the bank sold some of the Ukrainian structures.
Will the domestic financiers as well be honest with their customers, predict difficult. Experience shows that this is not always — just remember the story of Nadra Bank, or «Rodovid.» As you know, the state has not yet decided these issues.
The economy is in danger
«The fact that foreign capital leaves the Ukrainian financial sector — is bad for the economy. Ultimately, this will hit the industrial sector in Ukraine, it will fall,» — said Vladimir Lanovoy, president of the Center of market reform, ex-Minister of Economy.
In fact, according to an expert, economically successful state — it is a state in which there is an excess supply of money, the economy full of money. «Then the banks will lower interest rates on loans, and if rates are low, companies can borrow and grow,» — said Lanoviy.
According to experts, the Ukrainian banks could fill the vacuum that formed after the withdrawal of foreign capital, but this is only possible in attracting a large number of deposits from the public, which in turn is possible with low inflation (1-2%) and high confidence in Ukrainian domestic banks .
But another expert, economist Victor Lissitzky, said that he did not notice any strong outflow of foreign capital from the financial sector of Ukraine.
"In May, the share of foreign capital in the overall market share of Ukraine on the contrary even slightly increased. But I noticed that foreigners see how this business is regulated in this country, have moderated their development plans. Reduced activity of foreign banks, too bad for the economy, it is will not contribute to our country's integration into the global economy ", — says Lissitzky.
